In joint work with Jose Sebastian Ñungo, Lucas Gomez and Mateo Dulce; we introduce an under-reporting model of spatio-temporal events motivated by relevant real-world applications such as citizen security. Under-reporting of socially sensitive events can undermine the credibility of official figures and can be used strategically by official agents or the general public. Models that simultaneously estimate incidence and under-reporting rates of events can be used to improve the allocation of public resources. The under-reporting of data is a common phenomenon in many data-related problems. For instance, under-reporting is a widely studied problem in survey sampling, where it is an important example of non-sampling errors that can introduce biases in the estimations. This problem is of particular relevance in public policy issues where government agents try to monitor geographically distributed incidents that are often under-reported. For example, sanity restaurant food inspection services, child services, pest controls, building’s compliance safety regulations, animal poaching surveillance at natural parks, crime incidents in a city, among many others. For example in year 2021, the Bogota City chamber of commerce victimization and reporting survey reported an average victimization rate of 17% and, among those, only 49% said they had reported the event to the police. … Continue reading Modelling Under-reported Spatio-temporal Events